In the elections In a year when the Senate map was objectively advantageous to Republicans, Texas and Florida were considered red states where a Republican seat could be held. maybe Things have turned around if things go well for the Democrats.
Then in December, a Nebraska poll showed Dan Osborne, an industrial mechanic and steam mechanic, leading incumbent Republican Sen. Deb Fischer by two points, 40 percent to 38 percent. In early May, Osborne’s campaign released a new Public Policy Polling poll that showed him down by four points, 37 percent to 33 percent, with 30 percent undecided.
While some political observers were skeptical of the early polls, they have drawn attention to Nebraska. In June, for example, Osborne was endorsed by the United Auto Workers union and even promoted on social media by Julia Louis-Dreyfus.
As attention turns to the Cornhusker State, the question is emerging: Can Osborne, who has not only departed from the traditional Senate campaign manual — but thrown it in the trash — defeat a Republican senator in a state widely viewed as a deep red state? And can the Nebraska Senate race help Democrats maintain their slim control of the Senate?
With the possibility of a coup in the air, both sides have turned to data to support their arguments. In mid-July, Fisher published a poll showing her with a 26-point lead. A week later, Osborne’s camp highlighted a poll showing him tied with Fisher at 42%.
Fundraising has shown similarly mixed results. Osborne outraised Fisher in the second quarter ($1 million versus $679,000), while Fisher has more than $3 million in cash on hand to $650,000 more.
Osborne is no stranger to national and local coverage. In 2021, he led the Kellogg strike, which resulted in a new labor contract with higher wages and improved benefits. After announcing his run for Senate, he spent the first eight months of his campaign working 50-hour weeks, continuing his training, all while still having to go to school and take tests.
While few candidates running for reelection or election to the Senate can talk about the intricacies of courtrooms and boardrooms, Osborne is the only one who is simultaneously knocking on doors while obtaining his EPA 608 license, which allows him to handle and purchase refrigerants.
But what really sets his race apart isn’t just who he is, but the way he’s running. Osborne has positioned himself as an independent — or, as they say in Nebraska, nonpartisan.
Osborne is not the first Senate candidate to run as an independent. Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Sen. Angus King of Maine ran and won as independents. In 2022, Evan McMullin ran as an independent (and lost) for a Utah Senate seat.
But while McMullin eventually accepted the Democratic nomination in Utah, Osborne declined to endorse any political parties or politicians. And while Sanders and King are teaming up with Democrats in the primaries, Osborne has not committed to any such endeavor.
In May, his campaign sent out a press release announcing the distinction.
“No political campaign has ever done this before, but we want to put people above politicians, parties, and profits,” Osborne was quoted as saying in the statement. “Whether you’re a Republican, independent, liberal, or Democrat, I don’t care. I welcome anyone who joins me to change Washington.”
The decision was met with swift criticism from the Nebraska Democratic Party, which had planned to endorse him, and said it was now looking for write-in candidates.
Nebraska Democratic Party Chairwoman Jane Kleeb said they have endorsed 11 independent candidates this cycle, including two running for state legislature seats.
“We embrace independents and have a long history of embracing independents and supporting independents,” says Kleeb. rolling stone“I mean, obviously our party respects when a candidate changes his mind about an endorsement, but for Dan to lead the party for months, telling us how important the Democratic endorsement and infrastructure was to winning the seat, and then basically saying, ‘No,’ once he knew the deadline had passed when we could have a candidate on the ballot, clearly left a lot of Democrats in the state questioning the integrity of his campaign.”
But Osborne denied the description, saying: “No one was fooled. I have made it clear that I will not accept the support of any party.”
A source close to Osborne's campaign indicates that in The New York Times In an article about his candidacy in early March, Osborne said he was not sure he wanted the Democratic Party's endorsement.
Adding further political complexity to the already atypical dynamics of this race, Nebraska’s other Senate seat is also up for grabs this year in a special election — the first time both seats have been on the ballot at the same time since 1954. In that race, the Nebraska Democratic Party has a candidate, Preston Love Jr., who is challenging former Gov. and current Sen. Pete Ricketts, who won the seat by appointment in 2023.
Osborne attributes his career to his candidacy, where he made his final decision to establish and maintain political independence. He was recruited by railroad union members who had noted his leadership of the Kellogg strike, not by a political party.
One of those people was Mike Helmink, a railroad employee and union leader who started an exploratory committee to run for Fisher’s seat before ending it after his leave was denied. Helmink—treasurer of the Nebraska Railroad Workers Association for Public Safety, which endorsed Osborne—believed that a nonpartisan path was the path that could lead to victory.
“There’s a kind of polarizing atmosphere in politics in the state,” Helmink says. “The independents, or nonpartisans, are becoming a larger and larger group. We have a large group of people who feel like their voices are not being heard.”
Helmink argues that the Democratic message doesn’t work outside Lincoln and Omaha. The last Democrat to win statewide was former Sen. Ben Nelson in 2008.
“The only problem with Dan is that he’s from Omaha,” Helmink says with a laugh. “But, you know, at least he’s not from the rich elite of Omaha. That helps. He works for a living. That definitely sells. So, yeah, we’re very optimistic about the possibility of Deb Fisher replacing Dan Osborne.”
While not having the money or infrastructure of a major party has its drawbacks, Osborne sees it as a strength. “The advantage is that as a grassroots person I am beholden to no party, I am beholden to no special interests,” he says. “So no one can tell this campaign what to think, what to do, what message to portray.”
Osborne doesn't find the close race surprising. In fact, he says the explanation is simple. “I think it comes down to the fact that people We are “I get frustrated, you know, with parties catering to their extreme desires,” he says. “There are about 300,000 registered nonpartisan voters in Nebraska. It’s the fastest-growing demographic in voter registration.”
Nationally, independent voter turnout has also been high. Although independents make up a much larger voting bloc than either party, there are only four independent senators currently: Sens. Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona and Joe Manchin of West Virginia, plus Sanders and King — all four of which include Democrats. Sinema and Manchin will not run for reelection in 2024.
With this current reality in mind, Osborne says voters are always wondering who he plans to support for president (he has not committed to any candidates) and, if elected, which party he will campaign with.
“I think when they ask about this, they’re looking for, ‘Oh, is he a Democrat? Or is he a Republican?’” Osborne explains, saying that deep down a lot of people think you have to be one or the other. “Well, I’d say that’s bullshit because I feel like I’m really independent. I’m with the workers.”
Osborne said he sees his independence as something Nebraska voters should not view as a burden, but as an asset to them and the state. “I’m an independent and when I get to the U.S. Senate, I want to be kind of a rebel,” he said. “Why can’t I create an Osborne Caucus? Or an Independent Caucus? Especially if I’m the 51st swing vote in the U.S. Senate. People are going to have to work with me.”
Before that happens, he has a tough task ahead of him. Nebraska has a Republican governor and a full Republican congressional delegation. In 2020, former President Trump won more than 58 percent of the state’s popular vote.
Osborne’s campaign rejects the idea that Nebraska is irrevocably red, highlighting the uniqueness of the state’s political system with its unicameral legislature that technically operates on a partisan basis. Nebraska currently awards two electoral votes to the winner of the statewide popular vote, and one electoral vote to the winner of each congressional district (which gave former President Trump four votes total, and President Joe Biden one in 2020).
Osborne said he believes Nebraska's identity in dealing with the political system in its individualistic framework is what could allow him to be the state's first independent senator since George Norris won in 1936.
His platform certainly reflects that. As a union leader and a worker who seriously injured his hand on the job, his platform is a perfect fit for workers and workers’ rights. Otherwise, it doesn’t fit neatly into the boxes of this highly polarized political moment in the country. Osborne actively advocates for legalizing cannabis, and securing the border. He supports abortion rights and the Second Amendment—both areas where he feels government should not interfere.
Osborne says he doesn't see any of his positions as incompatible with each other, insisting that this range and difference is shared by the voters he meets on the road, and when he knocks on their doors.
He says that independence from established parties and their entrenched platforms is why he's able to build the Nebraska voter coalition needed to win.
