Milwaukee – This This week's Republican National Convention is less about the nomination and more about Trump's 2024 victory.
After her convention speech Tuesday night, Lara Trump, co-chair of the Republican National Committee, made a late-night appearance at Lone Star Social, a lavish after-party for the Texas delegation, held in an ornate, columned hall called the Grain Exchange, where waitstaff served glasses of champagne and plates of scrambled quail eggs.
The candidate's daughter-in-law highlighted the Republican National Convention's plans to boost turnout, insisting that attendees would get a good night's rest on Election Night. “We're going to bed early on November 5th, when Donald J. Trump will be inaugurated as our 47th president,” she said. early“I'll call him at ten o'clock,” she assured. “How does that sound to everyone?”
On nearly every corner of the convention site in downtown Milwaukee, Trump supporters declared the presidential election all but over. In the wake of the failed assassination attempt on the former president—and amid a barrage of poor Democratic poll numbers and party infighting—bullish optimism about Trump’s chances in November has become the norm. “I think Trump is going to win the election,” former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told Fox News. rolling stone“You should never feel like there’s anything ‘in the bag,’ but I think he has a very good chance of winning.” Trump ally and former White House physician Rep. Ronny Jackson smiled from ear to ear when asked about Trump’s chances: “Man! I think it looks very good,” he said. rolling stone“I mean we've got all the momentum now.”
In fact, it's rare to find a seasoned Republican operative, Republican lawmaker, prominent conservative figure, delegate, or close associate of Trump in Milwaukee this week. rolling stone I have come across someone who is not convinced that a Trump comeback, or even an electoral collapse, is now a foregone conclusion.
The party seems convinced that its avowedly authoritarian leader is on his way to regaining power, but just beneath the surface there is a nagging concern that the ball is being dropped in the trash can too soon. Election Day is still 3.5 months away, a long time in American politics. And a small number of the Republican Party’s national elite and the big-donor class in town have quietly acknowledged that Trump could lose the election. rolling stone Trump’s nemesis and 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton—of all people—is a useful and frightening example for them. She left a joyous nominating convention over the summer with the other party looking largely demoralized and disintegrating on the other side, with a wealth of encouraging poll numbers and legions of followers waiting for her to win easily.
Then I blew it up.
“Are we going to screw this up? Anything is possible,” said a Republican donor who recently met with the former president, sighing heavily on Wednesday before the evening’s keynote speeches.
If Trump can thwart this march now, he risks not only losing his policies and his party, but also actual prison sentences, a reality he is fully aware of and hopes to use another term to prevent.
But it’s hard to remember a time in national politics when the pendulum swung so quickly in the direction of one candidate. First, Biden gave the world’s worst debate performance — setting off weeks of intraparty turmoil over whether he should continue to be the Democratic standard-bearer. Then Trump survived an assassin’s bullet before raising his hand in a defiant salute — images that will be in children’s textbooks. And while Trump was giving a huge rally in Milwaukee, Joe Biden was diagnosed with Covid.
If the election were held today, Trump would likely win. Period. But elections aren’t sprints. They’re long races, and the dynamics can change. At this point, it’s not clear whether Biden will be the Democratic nominee next week, let alone when the party convention will be held in Chicago in August. And despite all the terrible news for Biden, the polls in this race are still within recoverable range. Remember, at one point, Michael Dukakis looked like a post-Reagan world champion, invincible against George H.W. Bush.
Much of the current dynamic is reminiscent of the 2016 campaign—when Clinton was on high alert and the Republicans seemed in deep disarray, with many senior GOP members resigned to a landslide defeat to a candidate named Donald Trump. So high was the hubris on the Democratic side that, during the general election, Clinton refrained from visiting Wisconsin, where she lost in a stunning upset.
Some of the Republicans’ overconfidence at this moment can be attributed to faith. Speaker after speaker at the convention, both on the main stage and at satellite events, has spoken of the divine gift of Trump’s survival. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina’s convention speech epitomized this line of religious thinking. “On the Sabbath, the devil came to Pennsylvania with a gun,” Scott said. “But an American lion got back on his feet.” “If you didn’t believe in miracles before the Sabbath, you better believe now,” Scott continued. “Our God still saves. He still saves.”
While God may move in mysterious ways, the common understanding is that a higher power saved Trump because he wants him back in the White House. As Lara Trump said at the after-party, “God is not done with Donald J. Trump.”
Among the many speakers at the conference, Trump ally and former New York congressman Lee Zeldin stood out as a rare voice sounding the alarm against complacency. “You have to fight for it — the mechanics of campaigning, the tactics of campaigning,” he said at a side event hosted by the America First Policy Institute, a pro-Trump think tank.
For Zeldin, that includes encouraging Republicans to embrace early voting, or risk going into Election Day having “lost so many states across this country.” Zeldin urged GOP activists not to give in to Democrats. “We need to be everywhere, and not take anything for granted — with every ounce of energy, every moment of our day!” he said. “We cannot wake up the day after Election Day having fallen short on this important issue of saving America.”
Elsewhere in Milwaukee, some light groundwork was already being laid for excuses in case Trump failed.
Hours after Trump’s running mate, Sen. J.D. Vance, took to the stage Wednesday, close Trump ally and Republican National Convention Committee member David Bossie sat in the lobby bar area of a luxury hotel near the convention grounds, eating a midnight dinner. Surrounded by former senior Trump administration officials and other MAGA supporters, he partied late into the night.
When asked by rolling stone And if it's unwise for Republicans to declare victory so early, Posey responded: “I think the fake news media is going to create a narrative now that Donald Trump is a guaranteed winner, in an attempt to suppress and diminish our votes.”
