Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
Commentary (Updated July 19, 2024): The first Oscar charts have been launching since July 1, and this week, they deliver a first look at the best supporting actress race, where superstars such as Selena Gomez, Ariana Grande, and perhaps even Lady Gaga could occupy the category.
The fall festivals begin in the next five weeks, and many of these races will start to take shape.
We’re expecting to see big contenders such as Pedro Almodovar’s “The Room Next Door,” Pablo Larrain’s “Maria” and Todd Phillips’ “Joker: Folie à Deux” at Venice. At the same time, Telluride doesn’t announce its lineup until the day before.
TIFF will present Ron Howard’s “Eden,” Rebel Wilson’s directorial debut “The Deb” and Marielle Heller’s “Nightbitch,” which stars six-time Oscar nominee Amy Adams.
Please remember, all this conjecture is early, so we remain open and await more movies to drop during the awards circuit. The race is only beginning.
The 97th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 2.
All movie listings, titles, and distributors are not final and are subject to change.
*** = PREDICTED WINNER
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Best Picture
Image Credit: Aidan Monaghan “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen, Arnon Milchan, Yariv Milchan, Eric Fellner, Tim Bevan, Michael Schaefer
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Jacques Audiard, Pascal Caucheteux, Valérie Schermann, Anthony Vacarello
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Lucy Fisher, David Franzoni, Michael Pruss, Ridley Scott, Douglas Wick
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Todd Phillips, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Joseph Garner
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)
Joslyn Barnes, Dede Gardner, Jeremy Kleiner, David Levine
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Todd Black, Denzel Washington
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Agustín Almodóvar
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Jeff HermannOscar category page with rankings>>>
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Director
Image Credit: Courtesy of Saint-Laurent Productions Pedro Almodóvar
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Jacques Audiard
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Steve McQueen
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
RaMell Ross
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM/Orion)
Ridley Scott ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Actor
Image Credit: Courtesy of Focus Features. © 2 Colman Domingo
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Ralph Fiennes
“Conclave” (Focus Features)
Joaquin Phoenix
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Denzel Washington ***
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John David Washington
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Actress
Image Credit: Pablo Larraín Karla Sofía Gascón
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Angelina Jolie
“Maria” (No U.S. Distribution)
Demi Moore
“The Substance” (Mubi)
Julianne Moore
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Saoirse Ronan ***
“The Outrun” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Supporting Actor
Image Credit: A24 Kieran Culkin
“A Real Pain” (Searchlight Pictures)
Samuel L. Jackson ***
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Clarence Maclin
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Pedro Pascal
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Stanley Tucci
“Conclave” (Focus Features)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Supporting Actress
Image Credit: Warner Bros. Danielle Deadwyler
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion)
Lady Gaga
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Zoe Saldaña ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Tilda Swinton
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)Oscar category page with rankings>>>
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Original Screenplay
Image Credit: Netflix “Anora” (Neon) ***
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Steve McQueen
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Jacques Audiard
“His Three Daughters” (Netflix)
Azazel Jacobs
“The Room Next Door” (Sony Pictures Classics)
Pedro AlmodóvarOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Adapted Screenplay
Image Credit: DreamWorks Animation “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Peter Straughan
“Nickel Boys” (Amazon MGM Studios/Orion) ***
RaMell Ross, Joslyn Barnes
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Virgil Williams, Malcolm Washington
“Sing Sing” (A24)
Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)
Chris SandersOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Animated Feature
Image Credit: Courtesy of Annecy Animation Festival “Inside Out 2” (Pixar)
Kelsey Mann, Mark Nielsen
“Memoir of a Snail” (IFC Films)
Adam Elliot, Liz Kearney
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
Morgan Neville, Caitrin Rogers, Mimi Valdes, Pharrell Williams
“Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl” (Netflix)
Merlin Crossingham, Nick Park, Richard Beek, Claire Jennings
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Chris Sanders, Jeff HermannOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Production Design
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Adam Stockhausen, Anna Pinnock
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Patrice Vermette, Zsuzsanna Sipos
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Emmanuelle Duplay, Cécile Deleu
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Arthur Max, Elli Griff
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Mark Friedberg, Karen O’HaraOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Cinematography
Image Credit: Apple “Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Yorick Le Saux
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Greig Fraser
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
Paul Guilhaume
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
John Mathieson
“Maria” (No U.S. Distribution)
Edward LachmannOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Costume Design
Image Credit: Parisa Taghizadeh Warner Bros. “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
Colleen Atwood
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Jacqueline Durran
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
Jacqueline West
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Janty Yates
“Wicked” (Universal Pictures)
Paul TazewellOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Film Editing
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Neon/YouTube “Anora” (Neon)
Sean Baker
“Blitz” (Apple Original Films)
Peter Sciberras
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix) ***
Juliette Welfling
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Sam Restivo, Claire Simpson
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
Jeff GrothOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Makeup and Hairstyling
Image Credit: Cannes Film Festival “Beetlejuice Beetlejuice” (Warner Bros.)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“The Substance” (Mubi)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Sound
Image Credit: ©Warner Bros/Courtesy Everett Collection “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Joker: Folie à Deux” (Warner Bros.)
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Visual Effects
Image Credit: Screenshot courtesy Disney/YouTube “Deadpool & Wolverine” (Marvel Studios)
“Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures) ***
“Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes” (20th Century Studios)
“Mufasa: The Lion King” (Walt Disney Pictures)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Original Score
Image Credit: Atsushi Nishijima “Conclave” (Focus Features)
Volker Bertelmann
“Gladiator II” (Paramount Pictures)
Harry Gregson-Williams
“Kinds of Kindness” (Searchlight Pictures)
Thomas Newman
“The Piano Lesson” (Netflix)
Alexandre Desplat
“The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation) ***
Kris BowersOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Original Song
Image Credit: Focus Features “El Mal” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“Mi Camino” from “Emilia Pérez” (Netflix)
“TBA song” from “Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
“TBA song” from “Six Triple Eight” (Netflix) ***
“TBA song” from “The Wild Robot” (DreamWorks Animation)Oscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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Documentary Feature
Image Credit: ©Herb Ritts/AUGUST Copyright Ce “Daughters” (Netflix)
dir. Angela Patton, Natalie Rae
“Piece by Piece” (Focus Features)
dir. Morgan Neville
“Sugarcane” (National Geographic Documentary Films)
dir. Julian Brave NoiseCat, Emily Kassie
“Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story” (Warner Bros.) ***
dirs. Ian Bonhôte, Peter Ettedgui
“Will & Harper” (Netflix)
dir. Josh GreenbaumOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
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International Feature
Image Credit: Wildcard “All We Imagine is LIght” (India)
dir. Payal Kapadia
“Emilia Pérez” (France)
dir. Jacques Audiard
“Kneecap” (Ireland)
dir. Rich Peppiatt
“Pedro Páramo” (Mexico)
dir. Rodrigo Prieto ***
“Reinas” (Peru)
dir. Klaudia Reynicke-CandeloroOscar category page with rankings>>>Coming Soon!
