Variety’s Awards Circuit Podcast Reveals Final 2024 Emmy Predictions

Variety’s Awards Circuit Podcast Reveals Final 2024 Emmy Predictions


Welcome to Emmys week! We’re already off to a record-breaking start, with FX’s “Shōgun” making history ahead of the Primetime Emmys. With 14 wins over the Creative Arts Emmy weekend, “Shōgun” is now the most-honored show in a single year — surpassing “John Adams” (13 in 2008) and “Game of Thrones” (12 wins in 2015, 2016, and 2019). Once again, the big awards don’t come until this weekend, and “Shōgun” is likely to add to that total.

Is that enough for FX to celebrate? They’re also aiming to surpass last year’s record for the most wins for a comedy in a single year (10). So far, after last weekend’s opening, “The Bear” has 7 wins this year. I think it’s very possible to top that 10. FX will likely be the network champion this year — the first time in years that HBO or Netflix haven’t won the honor.

Next week promises to be a busy one, as the Emmys are back! Of course, last year’s Emmys — which were pushed back to January due to the Hollywood strikes — were a bit quieter. But it looks like that won’t be the case this time around. While the industry is certainly still grappling with some tough issues (like the standoff between DirecTV and Disney, which means satellite customers may not be able to watch the Emmys live — unless they have an antenna), there will still be plenty of celebrations to be had next week.

This week's edition of Variety's Awards Circuit podcast will feature a Mega Roundtable — where the hosts preview the 76 awards.D Emmy Awards, and they made their final predictions on who will win and who might be eliminated on Sunday. Listen below!

As mentioned above, “Shōgun” was a big hit this week at the Creative Arts Emmys; among other big moments, Sandra Oh finally won her first Emmy for Outstanding Television Movie for her co-production of “Quiz Lady,” after 14 nominations and becoming the most nominated Asian American actress at an Emmy without a win. Maya Rudolph won again for Outstanding Voice-Over Performance by a Character for “Big Mouth” — tying the overall record and becoming the first woman to win the category four times. This was the first ever Academy Award win for Outstanding Variety Special (Live) and the most wins ever (four) in a single year.

Related to: Emmys Preview: 'Happy Days,' 'SNL,' 'The West Wing' Cast Reunite, Jelly Roll Performs 'In Memoriam'

And now, thanks to VegasInsider.com, here's a detailed list of more records that could be broken next weekend:

• Robert Downey Jr. (“The Sympathizer”) could become the first actor ever to win an Oscar, a Daytime Emmy and a Primetime Emmy in the same year — he won the Best Supporting Actor Oscar for his role in “Oppenheimer,” the Daytime Emmy for Outstanding Lifestyle Program for his role in “Downy’s Dream Cars,” and could win Best Supporting Actor in a Limited Series at the Primetime Emmy Awards for his role in “The Sympathizer.”

• “Saturday Night Live” has already extended its record as the most-awarded TV show in Emmy history and has become the first TV show to win 100 Emmys (including specials) — it has won 101 Emmys to date (including specials). It has already won six Emmys on day one of the Creative Arts Emmys, and is up for two Primetime Emmys at next week’s main show, so that record is likely to grow.

• “Shōgun” has already broken the record for the most Emmy Awards won by a single episode in a single year and the most Emmy Awards won by a drama series in a single year – at the Creative Arts Primetime Emmys, Shōgun has already won 14 Emmy Awards and is nominated for 8 more Emmy Awards at the main ceremony, which could extend its record even further.

• “The Bear” may break its own record for the most Emmys won by a comedy series in a single year (in its first season, it won 10 Emmys) — this year, it has already won 7 Creative Arts Emmys and is nominated for 9 more.

• “RuPaul's Drag Race” could extend its record as the most-awarded reality show in Emmy history (across categories) — it has won 29 Emmys, so a win at the main show in the Outstanding Reality Competition category would make it its 30th win.

• “Curb Your Enthusiasm” may extend its record as the most nominated comedy series in the Outstanding Comedy Series without a win — it has been nominated 11 times but has never won.

• Quinta Brunson (“Abbott Elementary”) could become the first black actress to win best lead actress in a comedy series twice (last year, Brunson joined Isabel Sanford as the second black actress to win in the category and the first to do so in 40 years); if Brunson, Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) or Maya Rudolph (“Lot”) win best lead actress in a comedy series this year, it would be the first time in history that a black actress has won in the category two years in a row.

• Selena Gomez (Only Murders In The Building) could become only the second Latina actress to win Best Lead Actress in a Comedy Series, joining America Ferrera.

• Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”), Steve Martin or Martin Short (“Only Murders In The Building”) could break Eugene Levy’s record as the oldest actor to win an Emmy for best lead actor in a comedy series (Levi was 73 when he won for “Schitt’s Creek”; David is 77, Martin is 79 and Short is 74).

• D'Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai (Reservation Dogs) could break Michael J. Fox's record for the youngest actor to win an Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (Fox was 25 when he won the Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series; Woon-A-Tai is 22). Woon-A-Tai could also become the first original actor to win an Emmy for Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series (or any acting category).

• Carol Burnett (“Palm Royale”) could become the oldest actress to win Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series — Burnett will be 91 at the time of the 2024 Primetime Emmy Awards, which would also make her the oldest Primetime Emmy acting winner ever — until now, the oldest winner was John Gielgud, who was 87 when he won for his role in “Summer’s Lease.”

• Lisa Colon-Zayas (“Bear”) could become the first Latina to win Best Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series.

• Tyler Jesse Williams (“Abbott Elementary”) or Lionel Boyce (“The Bear”) could become only the second black actor to win Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series and the first in more than 40 years (the first and only actor to do so was Robert Gillam in 1979).

• Bowen Yang (SNL) may become the first Asian-American actor to win Best Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series.

• Anna Sawai (“Shogun”) or Maya Erskine (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”) could become the first Asian actress to win Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series at the Emmy Awards.

• Jennifer Aniston (The Morning Show) may join a rare group of actors who have won Emmys in both comedy and drama categories — Aniston last won for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Comedy Series for her role on Friends in 2002, and this is her second nomination in the drama category for her role on The Morning Show.

• If Imelda Staunton (“The Crown”) wins, it will be a rare feat — it will be the third time a different actor has won an Emmy for portraying the same character in the same series. Staunton portrayed Queen Elizabeth II in the final season of “The Crown.” Olivia Colman and Claire Foy, who portrayed the queen in previous seasons, both won Emmys for Outstanding Lead Actress in a Drama Series (interestingly, both Foy and Colman won for their final seasons portraying the queen).

• Hiroyuki Sanada (“Shogun”) could become only the second Asian actor ever to win Best Lead Actor in a Drama Series, and he could also become the first Japanese actor ever to win in the category.

• Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) could break Richard Kelly's record and become the oldest actor to win lead actor in a drama series — Kelly was 66 when he won for his role in A Year in the Life. Oldman will also be 66 at the time of the 2024 Emmys, but he will be one month older than Kelly was when he won.

• Tadanobu Asano (“Shogun”) or Takehiro Hira (“Shogun”) could become the first Asian actors to win Best Supporting Actor in a Drama Series; they would also become the first Japanese actors to win in the category.

• Elizabeth Debicki (The Crown) could become the first Australian actress to win Best Supporting Actress in a Drama Series.

• Sofia Vergara (“Griselda”) could become the first Latina to win Best Lead Actress in a Limited Series; Vergara would also be the first Colombian actress to win in the category.

• Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”) or Callie Rice (“True Detective: Night Country”) could become the first original cast to win Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series (or any acting category).

• Nava Mau (“Reindeer Baby”) could become the first Latina actress to win Best Supporting Actress in a Limited Series, and she could also become the first transgender actress to win an Emmy in any acting category.

• “The Amazing Race” could extend its record as the most awarded show in the Outstanding Reality Competition category — it has won 10 Emmy Awards and is set to receive its 21st nomination in 2024.

• RuPaul is nominated at a Primetime Emmy Awards (in the Outstanding Reality Competition Program category as a producer of “RuPaul's Drag Race”), so he can extend his record as the person of color with the most Emmys ever (11 now, could be 12).

Meanwhile, diverseForbes' Clayton Davis shares his picks for the 25 categories, set to be revealed Sunday night:

Drama series
“Shogun” (FX)

comedy series
“Bear” (FX)

Limited Series
“Little Ringtone” (Netflix)

Lead Actor (Drama)
Hiroyuki Sanada, “Shogun” (FX)

Lead Actor (Comedy)
Jeremy Allen White, “Bear” (FX)

Lead Actor (Limited)
Andrew Scott, “Ripley” (Netflix)

Lead Actress (Drama)
Anna Sway, “Shogun” (FX)

Lead Actress (Comedy)
Jane Smart, “Hax” (Max)

Lead Actress (Limited)
Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country” (Max)

Supporting Actor (Drama)
Billy Crudup, “The Morning Show” (Apple TV+)

Supporting Actor (Comedian)
Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “Bear” (FX)

Assistant Actor (Limited)
Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)

Supporting Actress (Drama)
Lesley Manville, “The Crown” (Netflix)

Supporting Actress (Comedy)
Hannah Einbinder, “Hacks” (Max)

Supporting Actress (Limited)
Jessica Janning, “Baby Ringtone” (Netflix)

Series of conversations
The Daily Show (Comedy Central)

Written variety series
“Last Week Tonight with John Oliver” (Max)

reality show or competition
“ProPaul's Drag Race” (MTV)

Directing (Drama)
“Shogun” (FX), Frederick E. O. Toy, “Chapter Nine: The Crimson Sky”

Directed by (comedy)
“Bear” (FX), Christopher Storer, “Fish”

Directing (Limited Film/TV)
“True Detective: Night Country” (Max), Issa Lopez, Series

Writing (Drama)
“The Crown” (Netflix), “Ritz” by Peter Morgan and Mireille Schipani-Claire

Writing (Comedy)
“Bear” (FX), “Fish” by Joanna Calo, Christopher Storer

Writing (Limited Film/TV)
“Baby Reindeer” (Netflix), series created by Richard Gad

Writing (Special Miscellaneous)
Alex Edelman: Just for Us (HBO/Max), Alex Edelman

See the rest of Clayton's predictions here.

ABC will broadcast the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards live from the Peacock Theatre in downtown Los Angeles on September 15. The telecast will be available to stream the following day (September 16-September 22) via Hulu.

Variety’s “Awards Circuit” podcast, hosted by Clayton Davis, Jazz Tangkai, Emily Longerita, Jenelle Riley and Michael Schneider, who also produces, is your one-stop source for vital conversations about the best in film and television. Each episode of “Awards Circuit” features interviews with top talent and creators in film and television, discussions and debates about the awards race and industry headlines, and much more. Subscribe on Apple Podcasts, Stitcher, Spotify or wherever you download podcasts.



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