Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:
OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS
2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie
“FARGO” — “Bisquik” — Year 5, Episode 10 (Airs Jan 16) Pictured: Jon Hamm as Roy Tillman. CR: Michelle Faye/FX
Courtesy of Michelle Faye/FX
Commentary: It took Jon Hamm 16 Emmy nominations to finally receive the long-awaited and well-deserved recognition for his iconic portrayal of Don Draper in AMC’s “Mad Men” back in 2015. However, since then, Hamm hasn’t been invited back to the TV Academy’s prestigious event. This year, though, that may change with his role in the fifth season of FX’s anthology series “Fargo.”
In this season, Hamm plays Sheriff Roy Tillman, a corrupt rancher who holds the position of constitutional sheriff in Stark County, North Dakota. It’s a departure from the roles typically associated with the seasoned actor, and his chemistry with co-star Juno Temple lights up the screen. Given the competitive nature of limited acting categories this year, Hamm stands out as the most likely nominee in the field (so far).
He may find himself up against Andrew Scott, who was recently overlooked by the Oscars for his role in “All of Us Strangers,” where he shines as the titular character in Steven Zaillian’s monochromatic dark limited series “Ripley.” Additionally, Hiroyuki Sanada leads the critically acclaimed “Shōgun,” another FX production, adding further intrigue to this year’s race.
Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.
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Image Credit: Lauren Smith/Paramount+ And the Predicted Nominees Are
Rank Performer and Series 1 Jon Hamm — “Fargo” 2 Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix) 3 Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shо̄gun” (FX) 4 Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime) 5 David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+) 6 Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: Netflix Next in Line
Rank Series 7 Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix) 8 Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+) 9 Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+) 10 Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz) Outstanding Lead Actor in Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Image Credit: Courtesy of Apple TV+ Also In Contention
Rank Series 11 Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+) 12 Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video) 13 Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix) 14 Matthias Schoenaerts — “The Regime” (Max) 15 Harvey Keitel — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock) 16 Clive Owen — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX) 17 Bruce Greenwood — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix) 18 Aaron Paul — “Black Mirror” (Netflix) 19 Matthew Broderick — “Painkiller” (Netflix) 20 Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie – Parts 1 and 2” (Lifetime) Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie -
Eligible Performances (Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie)
Image Credit: Jonathan Prime/Prime Video **The list below is not complete and have been confirmed as officially submitted. All information is subject to change. Grouped by network that airs each series.
- Clive Owen — “Monsieur Spade” (AMC)
- Tom Holland — “The Crowded Room” (Apple TV+)
- Michael Douglas — “Franklin” (Apple TV+)
- Tobias Menzies — “Manhunt” (Apple TV+)
- Austin Butler — “Masters of the Air” (Apple TV+)
- Jason Isaacs — “Archie” (BritBox)
- Samuel L. Jackson — “Secret Invasion” (Disney+)
- Matt Czuchry — “American Horror Story: Delicate” (FX)
- Brian Tyree Henry — “Class of ’09” (FX)
- Jon Hamm — “Fargo” (FX)
- Tom Hollander — “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
- Robert Carlyle — “The Full Monty” (FX)
- Clive Owen — “A Murder at the End of the World” (FX)
- Cosmo Jarvis — “Shōgun” (FX)
- Hiroyuki Sanada — “Shōgun” (FX)
- Mandy Patinkin — “Death and Other Details” (Hulu)
- Josh Charles — “The Veil” (Hulu)
- Logan Lerman — “We Were the Lucky Ones” (Hulu)
- Bill Pullman — “Murdaugh Murders: The Movie – Parts 1 and 2” (Lifetime)
- The Weeknd — “The Idol” (Max)
- Matthias Schoenaerts — “The Regime” (Max)
- Hoa Xuande — “The Sympathizer” (Max)
- Kelvin Harrison Jr. — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Aaron Pierre — “Genius: MLK/X” (National Geographic)
- Louis Hofmann — “All the Light We Cannot See” (Netflix)
- Paapa Essiedu — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Aaron Paul — “Black Mirror” (Netflix)
- Felix Cameron — “Boy Swallows Universe” (Netflix)
- Benedict Cumberbatch — “Eric” (Netflix)
- Bruce Greenwood — “Fall of the House of Usher” (Netflix)
- Leo Woodall — “One Day” (Netflix)
- Matthew Broderick — “Painkiller” (Netflix)
- Andrew Scott — “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Rufus Sewell — “Scoop” (Netflix)
- Kiefer Sutherland — “The Caine Mutiny Court-Martial” (Paramount+)
- Ben Foster — “Finestkind” (Paramount+)
- Ewan McGregor — “A Gentleman in Moscow” (Paramount+)
- David Oyelowo — “Lawmen: Bass Reeves” (Paramount+)
- Domhnall Gleeson — “Alice & Jack” (PBS)
- Sam Neill — “Apples Never Fall” (Peacock)
- Colin Woodell — “The Continental: From the World of John Wick” (Peacock)
- Édgar Ramírez — “Dr. Death” (Peacock)
- Paapa Essiedu — “Genie” (Peacock)
- Tony Shalhoub — “Mr. Monk’s Last Case” (Peacock)
- Harvey Keitel — “The Tattooist of Auschwitz” (Peacock)
- Rudy Mancuso — “Música” (Prime Video)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- Taylor Zakhar Perez — “Red, White and Royal Blue” (Prime Video)
- John Cena — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- Zac Efron — “Ricky Stanicky” (Prime Video)
- David Oyelowo — “Role Play” (Prime Video)
- Snoop Dogg — “The UnderDoggs” (Prime Video)
- Matt Bomer — “Fellow Travelers” (Showtime)
- Daryl McCormack — “The Woman in the Wall” (Showtime)
- Nicholas Galitzine — “Mary & George” (Starz)
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More Information
2023 category winner: Steven Yeun as Danny Cho — “Beef” (Netflix)
2024 Emmy Awards Calendar and Timeline (all dates are subject to change)
- Eligibility period: June 1, 2023 – May 31, 2024
- Feb. 29: Submissions open
- May 9: Deadline for programs that identify as Primetime programming to upload all entry materials.
- June 13: Nominations-round voting begins
- June 24: Nominations-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PT
- June 28 – July 8: Voting for peer group-specific top ten rounds panels (if applicable)
- July 17: Primetime Emmy nominations are announced.
- July 24: Deadline for errors and omissions to the nominations.
- August 5: Find-round videos available for viewing.
- August 15: Final-round voting begins.
- August 26: Final-round voting ends at 10:00 p.m. PST.
- Sept. 7-8: Creative Arts Emmy Awards and Governors Gala
- Sunday, Sept. 15: 76th Primetime Emmy Awards to air on ABC.
Emmy Awards Predictions
Drama Comedy Limited/Movie Drama Series Comedy Series Limited or Anthology Series Lead Actor (Drama) Lead Actor (Comedy) Lead Actor (Limited, Movie) Lead Actress (Drama) Lead Actress (Comedy) Lead Actress (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actor (Drama) Supporting Actor (Comedy) Supporting Actor (Limited, Movie) Supporting Actress (Drama) Supporting Actress (Comedy) Supporting Actress (Limited, Movie) Directing (Drama) Directing (Comedy) Directing (Limited, Movie) Writing (Drama) Writing (Comedy) Writing (Limited, Movie) Guest Actor (Drama) Guest Actor (Comedy) Television Movie Guest Actress (Drama) Guest Actress (Comedy) Casting (Limited, Movie) Casting (Drama) Casting (Comedy) Other Awards Predictions
Talk Series Reality Competition Program Animated Program Scripted Variety Game Show Character Voice-Over Performance Variety Special (Live) Host for a Reality or Competition Program Narrator Variety Special (Pre-Recorded) Structured Reality Documentary (Series) Directing (Series, Special) Unstructured Reality Documentary (Special) Writing (Series, Special) Directing (Reality Program) Hosted Nonfiction (Series or Special) Music (Limited, Movie, Special, Series, Documentary, Direction, Theme Music, Lyrics, Supervision) Main Title Design Writing (Nonfiction) Short Form Series Short Form (Actor/Actress) Exceptional Merit About the Primetime Emmy Awards
The Primetime Emmy Awards, commonly known as the Emmys, are awarded by the Academy of Television Arts & Sciences (ATAS). Established in 1949, these celebrate outstanding achievements in American primetime television. The Emmys are categorized into three divisions: the Primetime Emmy Awards for performance and production excellence, the Primetime Creative Arts Emmy Awards recognizing achievements in artistry and craftsmanship, and the Primetime Engineering Emmy Awards, which honor significant engineering and technological advancements. The eligibility period typically extends from June 1 to May 31 each year. The Television Academy, which hosts the Emmys, consists of over 20,000 members across 30 professional peer groups, including performers, directors, producers, art directors, artisans and executives.
