2024 Emmys Lead Actor Limited or TV Movie Predictions

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:


2024 Emmy Predictions:
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie

“FARGO” — “Bisquik” — Year 5, Episode 10 (Airs Jan 16) Pictured: Jon Hamm as Roy Tillman. CR: Michelle Faye/FX
Courtesy of Michelle Faye/FX

Commentary: It took Jon Hamm 16 Emmy nominations to finally receive the long-awaited and well-deserved recognition for his iconic portrayal of Don Draper in AMC’s “Mad Men” back in 2015. However, since then, Hamm hasn’t been invited back to the TV Academy’s prestigious event. This year, though, that may change with his role in the fifth season of FX’s anthology series “Fargo.”

In this season, Hamm plays Sheriff Roy Tillman, a corrupt rancher who holds the position of constitutional sheriff in Stark County, North Dakota. It’s a departure from the roles typically associated with the seasoned actor, and his chemistry with co-star Juno Temple lights up the screen. Given the competitive nature of limited acting categories this year, Hamm stands out as the most likely nominee in the field (so far).

He may find himself up against Andrew Scott, who was recently overlooked by the Oscars for his role in “All of Us Strangers,” where he shines as the titular character in Steven Zaillian’s monochromatic dark limited series “Ripley.” Additionally, Hiroyuki Sanada leads the critically acclaimed “Shōgun,” another FX production, adding further intrigue to this year’s race.

Read: All Primetime Emmy predictions in every category on Variety’s Awards Circuit.


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